Following last week’s assassination of Mohamed Brahmi and the subsequent fatal attack on a Tunisian army troupe in the al-Shaanbi area, in which eight soldiers were killed, a new political culture appears to be forming in Tunisia.
A loosely-affiliated opposition movement has come together formed of parties, trade unions and political groups with differing political ideologies but united by their desire to oust the Ennahda government.
Following last week’s assassination of Mohamed Brahmi and the subsequent fatal attack on a Tunisian army troupe in the al-Shaanbi area, in which eight soldiers were killed, a new political culture appears to be forming in Tunisia.
A loosely-affiliated opposition movement has come together formed of parties, trade unions and political groups with differing political ideologies but united by their desire to oust the Ennahda government.
The Tunisian General Labour Union (UGTT), the largest trade union in the country and The Tunisian Union of Industrialists, Businessmen, and Artisans (UTICA), have voiced their support for the opposition’s demand that the government stand down and give way to new elections, lending substantial extra weight to the opposition movement. The UGTT released a statement giving the Constituent Assembly three months to complete its mandate.
Ennahda loses foreign allies
The strengthening of the country’s opposition comes at a difficult time for the Ennahda government, who recently lost two of its closest international allies, namely the former Emir of Qatar and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Ennahda’s two largest domestic allies, Congress and Bloc, have also formed break-away fragments, weakening the ruling structure.
Despite the government’s difficult times, commentators note that existing divides between opposition forces – differences in ideology and competition between its components – means that the struggle for power could yet be a long and drawn out process.
While the assassination of Brahmi has closened the two main opposition parties, the Popular Front and Union for Tunisia, existential differences continue to cause distrust. Meanwhile, the Ennahda government, which paints itself as a victim surrounded by opportunists, remains in power.
Statements but few actions from opposition
Both opposition parties have released statements declaring their intention to work together, yet no formal alliance has been created. The Popular Front, traditionally leftist and Pan-Arabist, remains cynical of Nidaa Tounes -the main faction of Union for Tunisia and the spearhead of the opposition – because of the group’s links to the RDC and the former Ben Ali dictatorship.
In brief, the opposition appears united not by a coherent policy, but simply by its desire to oust the Ennahda government. Sit-ins with supporters of both parties have seen crowds of thousands take to the streets again in protest – but with little actual political consequence so far.
Many analysts see the party’s grassroots support being restricted to urban areas –working people, trade unions and schools. Support in rural inland areas is still lacking, say observers.
The third option?
As Union for Tunisia and The Popular Front struggle for influence, others have called for the parties to merge or for a third party to be formed that can successfully challenge the government and reduce polarization. The popular surge beginning to manifest itself among many circles and in many areas, may be a tool opposition parties can use to put pressure on its opponents in power.
The questions of a third option, which the front has sought for a long time, to build and consolidate as a party which can change the balance of power, remains an option. This third choice ultimately depends on the the front leadership’s desire to implement such a move.
Institutionalized and organized forces, such as the army and the security forces, however are still taking the side of the “legitimate” government. Ennahda is still mobilizing its supporters in the streets and yards. The balance of power remains a fragile one.
