Following the resumption of a national dialogue and the launch of nominations for prime minister, many questions are being raised about the fate of the current political blocs and about the alliances to which the dialogue might give birth – and those that may fall apart by the upcoming elections.

Following the resumption of a national dialogue and the launch of nominations for prime minister, many questions are being raised about the fate of the current political blocs and about the alliances to which the dialogue might give birth – and those that may fall apart by the upcoming elections.

The current fronts, whether in power or in opposition, have been mainly built on interim alliances. Most likely, the ruling Troika – which is comprised of the Islamic Ennahda Movement, the centrist Congress for the Republic Party (CPR), and the liberal Ettakatol Party – may be on the verge of disintegration.

This alliance has almost exhausted its objectives and has been suffering for some time now, from differences that may not appear in public, yet are concrete and exist both in positions on the most important issues and while voting in the National Constituent Assembly (NCA).

Ennahda has remained cohesive

With the exception of Ennahda, which has so far remained practically intact and has not faced splits or withdrawals, a large number of activists and leaderships of both the CPR and Ettakatol parties have withdrawn since day one in power. Complete factions and parties have been formed out of these two parties.

These divisions have made the parties of President Moncef Marzouki and the NCA President Mustapha Ben Jafar a heavy burden on Ennahda and unable to add anything to the political scene or even to bear the burden of governance partnerships.

This will certainly prompt Ennahda to search for new allies able to replace these two parties and, in particular, to compensate for Ennahda’s declining popularity since the assassination of leftist leader Chokri Belaid this past February. This has been shown in numerous opinion polls where the level of people’s satisfaction with Ennahda is consistently declining day after day.

Many observers believe that the most likely candidate to make an electoral partnership with Ennahda, led by Rached Ghannouchi, is the Call for Tunisia Party led by Beji Caid el Sebsi given both men’s high level of pragmatism and ability to propose political solutions to major dilemmas. Their convergence has recently begun to overshadow the course of the dialogue and the political movement in general, in addition to both men’s political profits and losses  in their respective parties.

The ‘Call’ is the solution

Ennahda is looking for a strong ally that is evenly matched with it in the economic and social options, i.e. market economy and conservative values, which it will only find in the Call for Tunisia, which has popular momentum and is replete with political, administrative and economic competencies but lacks a parliamentary presence and a religious legitimacy that wipes out the accusations leveled against it. This party has been often accused of infidelity by some imams close to Ennahda and has put the old dictatorial regime – the enemy of Islam as they call it – in the same box.

Ennahda needs a large conservative party to face what it calls the wide front of seculars and leftists, the enemies of Islam. And what Ennahda lacks may only find in the Call for Tunisia and vice versa. This may provide a minimum floor of convergence between them.

Consultations, external support and bilateral meetings, though a few, between Ghannouchi and Sebsi suggest positive signs of a possible alliance that might however not materialize should other things emerge during the negotiations.

Having lost a lot of founders such as Abderraouf Ayadi, Naziha Réjiba, Mohamed Abbou and others who have chosen to break away, the CPR has faced complicated problems by choosing to remain outside the current political process and rejecting the road map.

To the right of Ennahda

The CPR knows very well that the political scene after the success of the national dialogue will not be the same and that yesterday’s allies are not necessarily tomorrow’s. This is why the CPR has started, from the first day of the dialogue, to search for new allies. It has returned to where it naturally belongs and agreed with the parties of Mohamed Goumani and Hechmi Hamdi to reject the dialogue.

Furthermore, the CPR Secretary-General, Imed Daïmi, has begun marathonic consultations with the Wafa Movement of Ayadi, the Democratic Current of Abbou, and some of those who left the Popular Petition Party – mostly Islamic parties. It seems that these parties, with which the CPR is seeking to agree on the rejection of the dialogue terms, are those with which it will form an electoral front.

Ettakatol’s trouble seems endless, not the least are the schisms that have been hitting it since day one in power. Its political decision does not seem to be in one hand, but often appears distracted and even contradictory between a parliamentary wing – represented by Mouldi Riahi – which insists on making all decisions together with Ennahda and a wing outside the Parliament Hall – represented by Mohamed Bennour – which vainly tries to side with the opposition.

Most likely, Ettakatol has lost much popularity and the important position occupied by the NCA President, Mustapha Ben Jafar, has added nothing to it; rather, it has contributed to its fragmentation and division.

Ettakatol now faces the possibility of its own disappearance in case of its leader’s sudden absence as he may choose to bid farewell to politics when the Constitution formation ends.