The successive marathon negotiations involving Tunisia’s political and social players have failed to reach a consensus that is likely to lead the country out of its current crisis. Numerous initiatives and negotiations have so far failed to reach a road map at least.
The successive marathon negotiations involving Tunisia’s political and social players have failed to reach a consensus that is likely to lead the country out of its current crisis. Numerous initiatives and negotiations have so far failed to reach a road map at least.
The announcement made by the Islamic ruling Ennahda Movement leader Rached el-Ghannouchi to accept the initiative of the General Union of Tunisian Workers (GUTW) as a springboard for national dialogue, appears to have been mere politicking. The opposition at least considers Ghannouchi’s announcement as a mere time-buying maneuver, which does not reflect the ruling party’s conviction and awareness of the opposition’s demands – around which most national organizations and the majority of the political parties converge.
Impasse Tunisia
There are there predominant political factions in Tunisia. The ruling troika parties – Ennhada, Congress for the Republic and Ettakatol Party – along with a number of smaller Islamic-orientated parties that emerged after the 14 January Revolution, constitute one ideology. This alliance controls the Executive, the government and the presidency, and it has a majority in the National Constituent Assembly (NCA).
The second main influential political block is the opposition, grouped under the ‘Salvation Front’, a coalition between the Popular Front, a left-leaning and Arab nationalist alliance, and the Union for Tunisia, an alliance of centrist parties.
The third wave is a loose affiliation of unions and human rights organisations, namely the General Union of Tunisian Workers (GUTW – a labor union), the Federation of Industry and Commerce, the Tunisian League for the Defense of Human Rights and the National Bar Association.
Ennahda: Dissolution of NCA “coup against legitimacy”
Observers of Tunisia’s internal politics believe that any solution to the current crisis can only be achieved through consensus among these three parties, dictated by a clear road map that sets deadlines for the elections and checks implementation mechanisms. But this consensus is still absent and successive negotiations have so far failed to get it moving. Meanwhile, all parties try to appropriate the slogan of reconciliation and dialogue.
Ennahda, the backbone of the ruling troika, believes that the October 2011 elections have given it electoral legitimacy. It therefore rejects calls for the dissolution of the National Constituent Assembly, arguing that the way out of the crisis is not to prejudice these two institutions. Ennahda supporters say the NCA’s dissolution would be “a coup against legitimacy.”
Opposition: ‘Salavation government’ needed
The opposition alliance ‘Salvation Front’ believes the alternative lies in dissolving the National Constituent Assembly and the current administrative institutions. This would be replaced by a transitional ‘salvation’ government of national non-partisan competencies. The opposition demands new elections and is calling for a panel of experts to redraft the Constitution.
The opposition alliance says the National Constituent Assembly has exceeded its mandated term limit (one year according to the decree that governed the October 23, 2011 elections). It says the troika government lost legitimacy with the political assassination of Mohamed Brahmi. The opposition also accuses the troika of having failed to stimulate the economy or restore security.
Third wave
The national organisations (known as the sponsors of national dialogue), headed by the General Union of Tunisian Workers, believe that the the National Constituent Assembly should be maintained, being an elected legitimate authority. It must, however, identify its missions with regard to completing the drafting of the constitution, finalizing the election of the Independent Electoral Commission, preparing the electoral code and the rest of the constituent texts by a set date. The GUTW would then want a government of national competencies to replace the present administration headed by Ali Larayedh.
Ennahda: No national crisis
What are the difficulties that impede the achievement of a consensus among these parties, especially between Ennahda on the one hand and the opposition alliance and national organisations on the other? The clear differences between the initiatives launched by the GUTW and the opposition coalition, the dispute over whether or not to dissolve the NCA, suggest a resolution may yet be far away.
Entrenched partisanship and mistrust remain stumbling blocks. Ennahda says there is no crisis and blames the opposition and trade unions. Ennahda says the latter two impede legislation, have biased media and are a counter-revolution allied with terrorism which aims to disrupt the general situation in the country.
Three per cent growth rate?
The government says it is making progress, citing figures released by the Tunisian National Bureau of Statistics that say the economic growth rate achieved during the first six months of 2013 amounted to about 3 per cent.
The opposition and national organisations, which consider Tunisia’s ‘crisis’ as unsolvable within the existing political framework, are backed by international organizations and agencies, local experts and can count on the support of the chambers of industry and commerce and workers’ organisations. The opposition also contests the growth rate figures that Ennahda clings to.
Ennahda accuses its opponents, who believe the troika government has failed to run the country, to be “coup elements who openly and secretly plan to overthrow the government and electoral legitimacy.” The opposition counters that new elections would provide a fresh and popular mandate to accomplish national goals.
Who can occupy the streets the longest?
Observers say Ennahda has also outplayed its opponents. It maneuvered to forestall the General Union of Tunisian Workers’ initiative on the National Dialogue in October 16, 2012: both president and prime minister attended as individuals, not party members. Ennahda also maneuvered to pre-empt the initiative to form a government of national competencies proposed by former Prime Minister and Secretary-General Hamadi Jebali following the assassination of Chokri Belaid on February 6, 2013. Those initiatives might thave spared Tunisia the present polarisations.
Following the assassination of Mohamed Brahmi on 25 July, 2013, Ennahda mobilised its supporters in the street on August 2 to convince of its legitimacy. On August 6 and 13, the opposition responded through two big demonstrations of its own, which brought hundreds of thousands of protestors back into the street, prompting elements of the Ennahda leadership to call for a ban on public sit-ins.
Ennhada says the dissolution of the present government could create a political vacuum that would plunge the country into chaos. The movement’s attempts at veiled diplomacy meanwhile have kept it in power. When the troika spear declared acceptance of the Union of Tunisian Workers’ initiative as a catalyst for national dialogue, describing it as a “concession” on its part, the move was rejected by the opposition which demanded Ennahda dissolve the present government as a prerequisite for starting any national dialogue.
Internal disagreements in ruling troika
Despite clinging to power, the ruling Ennahda party is being weakened daily: The experience gained by the opposition since the assassination of Chokri Belaid will ultimately prompt Ennahda to make concessions and drop its negotiating red lines.
The troika itself is also shaking. Ennahda’s two ruling partners, Ettakatol and the Congress for the Republic, have begun to distance themselves. Ettakatol’s National Council, during a meeting held on 18 August, agreed to the formation a non-partisan government, an opposition demand. Ettakatol also refused to co-sign an August 13 Ennahda statement about the best route out of the political impasse.
Observers believe that this crisis has significantly deepened Ennahda’s social and political isolation and that the party is preparing for further concessions. What they will be remains to be seen.
