A recent surge in fatal attacks against the government and secular targets has raised fears that a violent reign of terror could envelop Tunisia.
Following the ambush on a Tunisian army unit in the al-Shaanbi Mountains on July 29, which left eight Tunisian soldiers dead, analysts fear attacks by insurgent groups may be increasing.
Besides the assassination of two senior political figures this year, a number of other threats and thwarted attacks have left security forces struggling to retain control.
A recent surge in fatal attacks against the government and secular targets has raised fears that a violent reign of terror could envelop Tunisia.
Following the ambush on a Tunisian army unit in the al-Shaanbi Mountains on July 29, which left eight Tunisian soldiers dead, analysts fear attacks by insurgent groups may be increasing.
Besides the assassination of two senior political figures this year, a number of other threats and thwarted attacks have left security forces struggling to retain control.
Five armed jihadists were arrested in the al-Wardiya area on August 4 following a shoot-out with security forces. The discovery of the cell followed an incident two days earlier, when police discovered a suspicious package near the home of a military colonel in the wealthy Menzah 9 district in Tunis. Inside the box was a coded letter full of death threats and a note: “No God but Allah.” The letter demanded that security forces withdraw from the al-Shaanbi Mountains.
A week before, an explosive device was found under one of the vehicles of the National Guard in the Halq al-Wadi area.
The Solimane Cell
Insurgent attacks are not new in Tunisia. On 2 August 1987, bombs were detonated in four tourists hotel on the day of former President Bourguiba’s birthday, as Islamic groups announced their presence in Tunisia.
The so-called Solimane Cell, the country’s most notorious and deadly fundamentalist organisation, later planted a number of bombs in the 2000s. Fourteen people were killed and 30 injured on an attack on a synagogue in Djerba on April 11, 2002. A truck carrying natural gas exploded outside the Jewish site of worship.
The Solimane Cell were involved in a number of other armed clashes with security forces and attacked vital institutions, foreign companies, and Tunisian and foreign personalities, under the banner of overthrowing the Ben Ali regime between 2002 and 2007.
Political analysts say the death of the Solimane Group’s leader, Lasad Ben Mohamed Sasi, in January 2007, briefly led to a reduction in the group’s activity. But the subsequent overthrow of Ben Ali in Tunisia and Gaddafi in Libya has seen a new wave of groups using terror emerge from the dust of both revolutions.
Following the overthrow of Ben Ali, many insurgents with a history of violence were released from prisons in Tunisia, repopulating armed cells targeting state and civil institutions. An influx of cheap weapons and extra personnel from Libya following the fall of Gaddafi, has also strengthened cross-border al-Qaeda ties in the region. Military analysts estimate that over 1 million small arms, mainly Kalashnikovs and RPGs, have flooded into Tunisia from Libya in the last two years.
Pipeline of weapons smuggled from Libya
“These groups usually buy light weapons such as Kalashnikovs and Rocket Propelled Grenades (RPGs) because they are easy to carry and it is possible to transport 30-40 pieces across the border from Libya to Tunisia,” Faisal al-Sharif, a military analyst, told Correspondents.
Weapons are often smuggled in times of civil unrest, say experts. On the day of a general strike on 13 December 2012, for example, a truck full of weapons, hand grenades and maps was discovered in the al-Fernana district in Jendouba, north-west of Tunisia by border police.
A smuggled weapons arsenal – explosives, rocket launchers, missiles, cartridges, bullet-proof vests, military uniforms, radios and wireless devices – was also discovered in one of the neighborhoods of Qabes in southern Tunisia. What’s more, intelligence reports continue to highlight training camps for religious insurgents in the mountainous region along the northeastern Libyan-Tunisian border.
US commander warns of West African network
Carter Ham, the Supreme Commander of U.S. forces in Africa, has also warned the Tunisian authorities that large quantities of weapons are being smuggled from Libya to Tunisia. “Al-Qaeda is present in the North African region and Tunisia is not isolated from what is happening in Mali and Guinea,” Ham told a gathering in Tunis during a recent visit to North Africa.
The strengthening of al-Qaeda in the Maghreb region, especially in Tunisia, has led to fears that the country could become a hug for insurgent training and activities.
Links with Salafists in Syria
Others note that armed militants pledging allegiance to fundamentalist Islam have broadened their recruitment basis, creating strong training exchanges and ties with Syria. Many of these militant groups emerged immediately after the outbreak of the Syrian Revolution under the influence of Salafist affiliations. Several sources have confirmed there are Tunisians in Syria fighting for Islamic groups and vice-versa.
But there is also a new and growing domestic tendency among largely unemployed Tunisian youth to join Islamic extremist groups.
The timing of the armed groups’ attacks is not random. According to most analysts, these groups usually move according to a carefully studied plan and they take advantage of insecure conditions in the country.
“Terrorism is now getting settled in Tunisia and its resistance will continue. It will probably strengthen its pace as the elections are approaching,” says Aliya al-Allani, a professor and a member of the opposition party, MDS.
Many cells, many agendas, no leader
Yet despite the frequency of recent attacks, some analysts say there is a lack of a coordinated agenda among militant groups affiliated to al-Qaeda. This was confirmed by Sami Brahem, a researcher on Islamic groups and a member of the Tunisian Institute for Strategic Studies, who told Correspondents that “jihadi Salafists in Tunisia have no leaders, no structures and no clear programs.”
Nevertheless, the growing threat from insurgent and better-armed groups could push the Ennahda-led government to seek a faster resolution to its ongoing stalemate with the opposition parties. Finding common ground, on which new elections could be built, will be crucial to stop Tunisia becoming a focus point for terrorism in the region.
