Since 14 January 2011—the largest protest that signaled the end of Ben Ali’s rule— Tunisia has seen an overwhelming wave of political opinion polls; a new tradition that has come about in the wake of the revolution.  But many have questioned the integrity of the institutions carrying out such opinion polls, their impartiality and how far they distance themselves from political disputes.

Since 14 January 2011—the largest protest that signaled the end of Ben Ali’s rule— Tunisia has seen an overwhelming wave of political opinion polls; a new tradition that has come about in the wake of the revolution.  But many have questioned the integrity of the institutions carrying out such opinion polls, their impartiality and how far they distance themselves from political disputes.

The results of political opinion polls raise a controversy in Tunisia regarding their credibility, the professionalism of the offices and agencies conducting them and how well they depend on the scientific principles and means universally accepted despite the absence of a legal regulating framework.

The most controversial opinion poll is the one recently conducted by “SIGMA Conseil Office” and “Le Maghreb” newspaper, which revealed that 41.7% of the respondents found Tunisia during the reign of Ben Ali better than it is under the present government.

In July, the private “Nessma” TV channel aired a program accusing “SIGMA Conseil” of publishing false results, including popularity of political parties before elections, in a bid to influence voters and public opinion.

Quality control

In a survey conducted by the Tunisian News Agency (Tunis Afrique Presse-TAP) last May, 70.8% of the participants – a total of 1,589 – believed that the opinion polls performed by some specialized offices and authorities in Tunisia were unacceptable and lacked quality, 22.1% thought they were fair, and 7.1% considered them good.

Hasan Al-Zarkoni, the owner and manager of “Sigma Conseil” organization, expressed astonishment about these doubts.

“I do not know why some people doubt the credibility of opinion poll results, and specialized offices’ impartiality, or their adherence to scientific terms,” he said. “Has anyone ever questioned a doctor’s commitment to the scientific rules of medicine and his/her credibility upon publication of his/her examination results?”

“Each office has its own survey method. I, for example, object to feedbacks via phone calls because they are inaccurate”, he added.

A Question of Trust

Sufian Shawarbi, a journalist and the chairman of the Political Awareness Society (L’association Conscience Politique) said, “Since the collapse of the former political regime, a number of media organizations and nascent associations have launched political opinion polls aimed to identify the Tunisian street opinion, a tradition we missed in Tunisia. But, it has been noticed that the survey procedures have not gone beyond being a hobby, and aren’t based on scientific principles.”

He believes that private centres deal with this activity through market logic, and are politically biased to their financially supporting party, and that the surveys carried out by a number of associations are of no great value and lack credibility, considering that they operate according to unscientific mechanisms.

Shawarbi excludes a research and studies centre, operating within the humanities faculty in Tunis, considering that it depends in its work on professionals. Psychology and sociology professors carefully supervise social sampling process, formulate sensitive questions and publish results based on strict scientific principles.

Amer Al-Aridh, head of the political bureau of the Ennahda Movement said that it would be difficult to gauge public opinion or survey people’s opinion while adulteration prevailed in the community, and that it would be impossible to know whether people’s answers were true or built on fear, which made them unadoptable.

“Now at the freedom stage, opinion polls have a greater value and importance, provided they depend on scientific tools, and do not fall into political or party agendas,” Al-Aridh said. “Otherwise, they will become a means of political and electoral propaganda, rather than a tool for scientific research or for gauging public opinion trends.”

The National Constituent Assembly elections refuted most of the opinion survey results concerned with Tunisians’ pre-election voting situation. Survey results confirmed that both Ennahda Movement and the Democratic Progressive Party (PDP) (now Republican Party) would achieve close results. But facts on the ground have confirmed victory of the Islamic movement with 89 seats out of a total of 217, while PDP won only 16 seats.

Opinions and Rules

Many parties in Tunisia call for developing a set of conditions, and obliging the opinion poll institutions to comply with them to ensure that opinion polls do not become a tool for distorting public opinion and serving politicians’ interests.

In this context, Amer Al-Aridh said that a set of conditions must be implemented, most importantly a commitment by those conducting the opinion polls to comply with strict scientific rules to ensure impartiality. “In democratic countries, for example, opinion polling processes stop at the end of election campaigning stages to prevent influencing or channelizing the public opinion,” he said.

For his part, Al-Zarkoni says there are two aspects regarding regulation of opinion poll procedures, the first lies in self-amendment of the profession, i.e. the parties dealing with opinion surveys should agree on the scientific, human and financial requirements needed for sector regulation, as well as method of publication. The second aspect he says, “The Statistics Supreme Council must be operating as a supreme body that monitors the opinion survey procedures and approves publishing their results.”

“I prefer freedom, self-amendment, and professional responsibility,” he added. “Even if there is a supreme body, it should not be responsible for overseeing the sector, which may turn into a tool of control and suppression.”