From the beginning, the Ennahda Movement chose, explicitly and publicly, especially after the announcement of the legislative elections results, neither to enter the presidential elections nor to support any candidate. It supported this position by a stance taken during a meeting of its Shura Council, calling on Ennahda supporters to vote for the appropriate presidential candidate in the first round of elections held on November 23, 2014.  

From the beginning, the Ennahda Movement chose, explicitly and publicly, especially after the announcement of the legislative elections results, neither to enter the presidential elections nor to support any candidate. It supported this position by a stance taken during a meeting of its Shura Council, calling on Ennahda supporters to vote for the appropriate presidential candidate in the first round of elections held on November 23, 2014.  

This sparked controversy between those who believe the Ennahda Movement did so because it chose to take a neutral stance and others who believe that this is a political strategy aimed at supporting a certain candidate without implicating itself and to avoid shouldering the responsibility, in case this candidate loses in the elections.

The Ennahda Movement did not nominate any candidate to the presidential elections in order not to allow others to say that this candidate had been supported by the Islamists, in case he were to win. This is against the strategy of the Movement and its declared vision which considers the president a person who unifies and represents all Tunisians.

Ennahda, after ranking second in the legislative elections, with 69 seats, does not want to enter into a political confrontation with Nidaa Tounes, which ranked first, by winning 85 seats, and which also nominated Beji Caid Essebsi as its presidential candidate. It gave its members and supporters the freedom to choose the person they see appropriate to lead the democratic process in Tunisia over the next five years without committing to this choice.    

This was a very intelligent move taken by Ennahda, which has experienced the difficulty of being in power in the last three years, especially when it was forced to enter into alliances with certain parties to administer the country’s affairs and to exclude others.  By doing so, it wanted to avoid partisan confrontations and to provide an opportunity for reaching a participatory formula that could achieve the consensus sought by the movement and which it considers as the best course to participate in the next government.

Playing the role of a neutral party

The moment the Ennahda Movement’s Shura Council decided to take this neutral stance in the presidential elections, many candidates were able to breathe a sigh of relief and  their hopes of winning the votes of the popular base of the Ennahda Movement, which has significant weight (around 950 thousand votes for the Ennahda Movement in the latest legislative elections) grew.

Their campaigns took on a new trend by openly and publicly started their attempts to attract and win the votes of the Ennahda supporters. They did not miss any occasion emphasize the need to ensure balance, prevent hegemony and preserve freedoms. They also started to raise concerns about scenarios on the return of the old dictatorship (Ben Ali). There were some candidates who re-considered their stances and introduced amendments to their electoral programmes and slogans highlighting the importance of Islam and the Arab and Islamic identity as well as using Shariah texts as references. Supporters of the Ennahda Movement were praised to gain their sympathy. 

Fathi Ayadi, head of the Ennahda Movement’s Shura Council, said it was the right of all presidential candidates to win the sympathy of all voters, including the supporters of the Ennahda Movement. He added that these supporters had the right to support any party they believe has the capacity to win the race, achieve the aims of the revolution, preserve the democratic system, and distance the country from hegemony.

Rached Ghannouchi, head of the Ennahda Movement, in his latest interview with the al-Jazeera channel said: “We do not want to impose on our popular base any of the candidates and we do not want to recommend any of them because there are many different opinions regarding this topic inside the Shura Council.”

This has also been clear at the level of the Movement’s bloc inside the Constituent Assembly during the submission of recommendations in favour of eight candidates. And this also makes the situation very ambiguous given that any of these candidates or some of them can win the support of the Ennahda Movement’s popular bid on balloting day.

Secretly supporting Marzouki

Field observations of Moncef Marzouki’s (the interim president) electoral campaigns, the stances of the Ennahda supporters as well as the results of the opinion polls show that a big part of the Ennahda freedom fighters and its members have already decided to publicly express their support to Moncef Marzouki, who they consider as the closest to their ideological system and the grantor of their religious freedom. This has become evident in the massive presence of the Movement’s supporters during all of Marzouki’s popular meetings, as well as the support of the former Leagues for the Protection of the Revolution, who have been the advocates of the Islamic approach in the Tunisian political context after the revolution, to Marzouki. 

On social networking sites, many pages affiliated with the Ennahda Movement were used to mobilize people to support Marzouki.  Moreover, some of the popular base leaders of the Ennahda as well as other Islamic leaders supported him on these sites.

Opinion polls conducted before the Election Day have confirmed that Marzouki has won less than 15% of the votes. Given the results of his party, the Congress of the Republic, in the recent elections, in which it only won 3 seats; it is evident that he only reached this 15% because of the votes of the Ennahda Movement.

We should not forget that most of the media in Tunisia consider Marzouki as the sole competitor of Baji Caid Essebsi and it has limited the competition in the elections between the Ennahda and the Nidaa Tounes, as has happened in the legislative elections.

Now, as things have become clear after announcing the results of the first round of the presidential elections, many have raised questions on the secret behind the deceitful stance of the Ennahda Shura Council. However, the answer was clear. The Ennahda Movement was reluctant to publicly market Marzouki because of his history which is full of problems and turbulences. However, it had decided to secretly support him because of its Muslim Brotherhood base on the one hand and to fulfil regional (Qatari and Turkish) desires pressuring it to do so, on the other hand.   

A service free of charge for Essebsi

This dual polarization, established by the Ennahda Movement in the first round of the presidential elections, through its support to Marzouki, even if in secrecy, does not serve anyone other than the candidate of Nidaa Tounes. 

It is certain that Essebsi will win in the second round and beat Marzouki because those who voted for him in the first round will vote for him again in addition voters who chose other candidates no longer present in the second round.

In the minds of voters, Marzouki has been linked with a certain stage of the revolution’s history—three years of the troika rule. There are many angry people at the different stations of this phase. The legislative elections proved that they are the overwhelming majority when we calculate those who voted for Nidaa Tounes and for the new parties in the parliament. These will most probably not vote for Marzouki even if they are not supporters of Essebsi and his Nidaa Tounes. 

The inevitable result is that Essebsi will get his secured votes, and a large number of other voters hoping to escape the memories of the troika. 

In contrast, Marzouki will take the votes he received in the first round as his share of the voting bloc, in addition to the votes of other voters who do not prefer him but will vote for him because they consider him not as bad as his competitor. But this won’t change the result.

If we consider, as is common in democratic practice, that the first round is used by the voter to be biased and the second round to choose, then the Ennahda Movement, by supporting Marzouki, has made it easy for its popular base in this first round of the presidential elections. However, it has also revealed its political cards and perhaps it has decided to position itself, as of now, out of the coming participatory calculations, in the government formation as well as in other formations.