Tunisia’s legislative elections brought a new winner in town, re-shuffled the balance of power and possibly complicated the political scene in the country instead of clarifying it. 

Nidaa Tounes Party, which ranked first in the October 26 elections—winning 86 seats in the National Constituent Assembly (NCA) ahead of Ennahda, which won 69 seats—will be obliged to form coalitions with other parties in the parliament in order to reach a simple majority (109 seats out of a total of 217). 

Tunisia’s legislative elections brought a new winner in town, re-shuffled the balance of power and possibly complicated the political scene in the country instead of clarifying it. 

Nidaa Tounes Party, which ranked first in the October 26 elections—winning 86 seats in the National Constituent Assembly (NCA) ahead of Ennahda, which won 69 seats—will be obliged to form coalitions with other parties in the parliament in order to reach a simple majority (109 seats out of a total of 217). 

The new mosaic in the NCA presents four potential scenarios for political coalitions, which Nidaa Tounes may form in the next government:

Scenario 1: An alliance excluding the Ennahda Movement

A coalition with without Ennahda is a possible hypothesis that Nidaa Tounes’ president,  Beji Caid Essebsi and high ranking party member Naji Jallul have reinforced in statements. “The movement does not enter into alliances except with those who are similar to it,” said Jallul.

Accordingly, Nidaa Tounes will enter into an alliance with the Afaq Tounes Party, a rightist liberal party, which won nine seats and with the Popular Front, a coalition of leftist parties, which won 15 seats as well as other smaller party lists such as the al-Mubadara, a constitutional party and some independent lists.

But, while this alliance seems possible on the grounds that the Popular Front Party and Afaq Tounes refuse any alliance with the Ennahda Movement, despite the differences in their ideological backgrounds, this scenario is still a dangerous one because it will make the Ennahda Movement, which will be excluded from joining power, obstruct the approval of the government or cause its failure, given that it can— if it agrees with other smaller parties which oppose Nidaa Tounes—obtain a one-third blocking minority.

Such an option would not contribute to  the stability of the political situation in Tunisia, nor to finding strong partisan support for the next government to enable it to comfortably work in confronting the deteriorating economic and security conditions. 

The leaders of the Ennahda Movement are very much aware of this.  Abdel-Fattah Moro, deputy head of the movement said: “No party can rule the country all by itself because we have departed from the  unilateral phase to a phase of cooperation for the benefit of the country.” Mohammed bin Salim, a leading member of the movement, was even more explicit by declaring that his party still has many seats in the parliament and can choose to stay in the opposition as a “modification and rationalization force to maintain the achievement of the revolution’s aims.” 

Scenario 2: Formation of a national unity government

This scenario  is echoed by most political observers and was repeatedly expressed by Essebsi: “Everybody will participate and no one will be left alone on the road.” 

Given that Nidaa Tounes is well aware of the huge challenges ahead–especially the economic, social and security challenges, which require the concerted effort of all parties to confront them, this scenario is not so far-fetched. 

Nidaa Tounes will find itself obliged to search for big, comfortable and pragmatic coalitions which could gather competing parties in order to guarantee the formation of an expanded national unity government. 

This government may be composed of the different party spectrum with the exception of the Popular Front, which ranked fourth with 15 seats and which categorically refuses to be in a government in which the Ennahda Movement is represented. 

It will most probably be formed by five big parties in the parliament: Nidaa Tounes, the Ennahda Movement, Afaq Tounes Party, which ranked fifth with nine seats, and the Free National Union, which ranked third with 16 seats and is headed by Slim Riahi, a young and controversial billionaire.

In this regard, leaders of Nidaa Tounes have talked about the possibility of  what they referred to as “government coexistence,” meaning the gathering of a number of parties in a national unity government but not necessarily though entering into alliances with these parties.

This option resonates among most of the politicians and observers of the the transitional path in Tunisia and among the economic actors, especially the quartet of organizations which have sponsored the national dialogue, the General Tunisian Labor Union (UGTT), the Union of Industry, Commerce, and Artisans; the Lawyer’s Union; and the Tunisian League for the Defense of Human Rights. 

Among the supporters of this option is Mehdi Jumaa, interim Prime Minister, who said: “It is imperative to form a national consensus government in order to confront the huge challenges, but the final decision with this regard should be taken by the majority.”   He also stressed that “the Tunisian people are fated to form a national consensus government in the future.”

Scenario 3: A bilateral alliance between Nidaa Tounes and the Ennahda Movement

An alliance between the two most popular parties will guarantee a comfortable majority of more than 150 seats, and will allow Nidaa Tounes the opportunity to disregard any alliance with the Popular Front and Afaq Tounes, two parties that refuse any alliance with the Ennahda Movement and any compromises resulting from it.

This scenario is further strengthened by leakages on meetings and deals between the two parties favoring consensus and the formation of an alliance formed for pragmatic reasons. 

This scenario however, appears not to be favored by the different parties of the national dialogue as voiced during their last meeting.  Hussain Abbasi, the general secretary of UGTT said: “The country cannot wait any longer, and it would be better at this stage of the nascent democracy in Tunisia to adopt the consensus option, which Rashid Ghannouchi, the Chairman of the Ennahda Movement, had talked about.”

Recently, social networking pages posted a picture of both party heads Beji Caid Essebsi of Nidaa Tounes and Rached Ghannouchi, of the Ennahda Movement together with a number of other figures during the October 30th celebrations on the 60th anniversary of the outbreak of the national liberation revolution.

The picture caused a stir on Facebook, particularly on Rashid Ghannouchi’s official Facebook page as well as many questions and interpretations on the presence of foreign interventions to pressure the two parties, Nidaa Tounes and the Ennahda Movement to enter into an alliance.

Yet a recent declaration made by the Ennahda Movement, saying it does not support any of the presidential candidates in the forthcoming presidential elections, has raised doubts whether or not an alliance between the big players will actually happen.

Another aspect making this alliance inconceivable is the presence of a stream within Nidaa Tounes, which refuses the idea of any alliance with an Islamic party. An alliance with Ennahda would lead to divisions within the Nidaa Tounes party and would oblige some of its elected members to walk-out, threatening its position as the biggest parliamentary bloc.

Scenario 4:  The formation of a technocrat government

The difficulty of forming comfortable alliances could oblige Nidaa Tounes to form an independent technocrat government, supported by political consensus from all or most of the parties represented in the parliament and which does not rely on a certain majority. 

Well-informed political sources believe that the Ennahda Movement does not accept this idea, especially if the ministers of this government will be chosen by Nidaa Tounes itself.

There are several scenarios haunting the political leaders, especially the leaders of Nidaa Tounes because it is the party qualified, according to the constitution, to form the new government.  However, it is clear now that the political actors in the country are entering a new phase governed by traditions different than those which the Tunisians have become accustomed to.  Today, the scene is dominated by two political movements with somewhat similar strength but with relatively opposite stances and opinions.

There is no doubt that the unconcealed and concealed negotiations that have already started will also affect and  be affected by the results of the forthcoming presidential elections scheduled to take place on November 23, 2014.  This process is expected to be a long one and extend over a number of weeks if a second presidential round is needed.