The assassination of leftist activist Chokri Belaid has complicated Tunisia’s political scene. The ruling Troika has disintegrated or is on the way to disintegration. At the opposition level, however, new alliances are beginning to form, while others have already vanished.
Since the January 14, 2011 revolution, the number of political parties suddenly jumped from ten to more than a hundred.
The assassination of leftist activist Chokri Belaid has complicated Tunisia’s political scene. The ruling Troika has disintegrated or is on the way to disintegration. At the opposition level, however, new alliances are beginning to form, while others have already vanished.
Since the January 14, 2011 revolution, the number of political parties suddenly jumped from ten to more than a hundred.
The results of the October 23, 2011 elections caused a political upheaval, especially among small and newly established parties as well as the opposition parties, which had a long history of struggle under Ben Ali’s dictatorship.
Several politicians have been convinced of the importance of unifying their ranks as well as mobilizing and consolidating forces on a practical basis and in accordance with a clear vision, aimed at achieving a reasonable level of party or national options, which will ultimately be presented to the people and the electorate.
The signing of a charter on an electoral front called Union for Tunisia, comprising five major opposition parties in February 2013 and setting up the Popular Front (PF) with leftist and nationalist offshoots, have produced a new political scene that basically consists of three main parties: the Islamists with their fixed electoral base and traditional allies, the Union for Tunisia with its five groups (Call for Tunisia, Republican Party (PR), Social Democratic Path Party (SDP), Patriotic and Democratic Labor Party (PTPD) and Leftist Socialist Party (PSG)), and PF with its leftwing branches.
Fragile alliances
The map of alliances is evidently in favor of the ruling Ennahda Movement since it has an electoral base that is not to sneeze at, but it has been harmed in three ways:
– An experience in power characterized by poor political and developmental performance. This may lower the number of those favorably disposed to Ennahda, who voted for it in the past elections;
– An unsuccessful first alliance experience because of its lack of ideological, intellectual and political harmony and of its dependence on a quota system with the Congress for the Republic Party, led by Moncef Marzouki, the interim President of the Republic, and Ettakatol Party, chaired by Mr. Mustapha Ben Jafar, the current speaker of the Constituent Assembly; and
– An experience of an alliance about to be formed, which seems that it will keep the traditional allies, in addition to incorporating small parties, including Islamic parties, such as El-Amen Party and El-Wafa movement.
In fact, the entire electoral burden will be exclusively undertaken by Ennahda, meaning that it will participate in the upcoming elections primarily through dependence upon its popular base and ideological elements. True, this will relatively ensure an active position for it in the next parliament, but it will not enable it to enjoy the comfortable majority it had in the last elections, especially since the number of its supporters decreased in the aftermath of arresting Chokri Belaid’s assassins who were found to be affiliated with the hard-line salafi current movement, and descending from the same ideological thought. It is worth mentioning that the opposition, which participated in the past elections, will take part in the upcoming elections with greater cohesion.
Union for Tunisia
The “Union for Tunisia” front may be considered the product of a significant political awareness of five parties that have sufficiently understood the integral formula for its collective action. Each of these parties has strengths and weaknesses causing them to be deeply aware of their need for the other to offset balances and consolidate their hold onto the electoral force.
– Call for Tunis comprises different members, including businessmen and politicians, and has a considerable number of supporters.
– PR has an active historical significance within the democratic movement in the country.
– SDP consists of qualified political cadre and academic experts.
– PTPD has a distinct experience in field political action.
– PSG is an ally that could give the five-partite alliance’s political program a social dimension and content.
Consequently, it can be said that the symbolic weight represented by the five allied parties may constitute a project for an electoral pole to be reckoned with. In addition, the five-partite alliance’s leaderships possess a time-tested statesmanship, like Béji Caïd Essebsi, Mohsen Marzouk and Lazhar Akremi from Call for Tunisia; Ahmed Najib Chebbi, Maya Jribi, and Yassine Brahim from PR; Ahmed Ibrahim and Samir Taieb from SDP; Abderrazaq Hammami from PTPD; and Mohammad Kilani from PSG.
The Union for Tunisia front may be generally understood as a confluence of different parties which have transcended the ideological discrepancy barrier and agreed to set the ground for a joint program primarily geared up to advocating modernist Tunisian society.
Heavyweight opposition
Still heavily saddened at the loss of one of its most important symbols, Shoukri Belaid, PF, as an alliance between radical left elements and a number of national configurations, seems one of the most reflective parties of the social depth of the revolution. It is in this sense considered a great opposition weight.
Although it is ruled out that PF joins the Union for Tunisia, owing to its insistence on keeping itself at bay from the two poles of competition of Ennahda and Call for Tunisia, its intrinsic powers may enable it to have a striking electoral position, let alone its considerable number of supporters in disadvantaged internal regions.
PF also has a remarkable unionist background considering its members’ experience in leading and middle positions of the Tunisian General Labour Union. It can also take advantage of the assassination of Chokri Belaid to market itself as an aggrieved party.
Among the most prominent players of PF is activist Hamma Hammami. PF includes Tunisian Workers’ Party; Progressive Struggle Party; Progressive Popular Party; Democratic Patriots’ Movement, led by assassinated Shoukri Belaid; PTPD; the Baathist Attalia Party; in addition to a large number of Nasserite nationalists.
Parties searching for position
On the side-line of new Tunisia’s political scene are parties that lack no potentials or political maneuverability, but their electoral chances nevertheless remain poor. That perhaps explains why these parties have tried to form blocs, depending on the huge powers enjoyed by the Free Patriotic Union Party (UPL) leader, young businessman Slim Riahi, who managed to incorporate many figures and theorists of the old regime.
This alliance, if formed, will constitute a significant financial strength that could play an effective role in the upcoming elections. The parties planning to merge into a strong collective patriotic party include UPL, Voice of the Will Party, Third Option Party, Modern Leftist Party, Citizenship and Justice Movement, Citizenship Movement, Tunisian Liberal Party, Democratic Alternative Party, and Glory Party.
Observers believe that the most significant electoral obstacle that may face the opposition alliances – contrary to the ruling troika – is their dependence upon a single electoral base, i.e. they will have to collect their votes from the same source; namely, the electoral peripheral of modernist bloc. This is likely to disperse votes and reduce the chances of achieving a landslide electoral victory sought by the opposition to reduce Islamists’ hegemony.
Ultimately, ballot box contestants are obviously fully prepared to fight the tough elections battle. However, the absence of a clear-cut electoral timetable may hide other obscure surprises that are likely to make the future of Tunisia’s transitional status even more ambiguous. The elections timetable is still debatable, in addition to disagreements about the question of the Independent Electoral Commission which has become the target of many rumors vis-à-vis its financial and administrative independence. Lack of clarity is still the order of the day.
