On the morning of February 6, 2013, while the country was engrossed in the assassination of leftist opposition leader Chokri Belaid, few people were concerned about that day’s newspaper reports about the possibility of forming a government of technocrats to succeed Hamadi Jebali’s unstable government torn apart by party conflicts.

On the morning of February 6, 2013, while the country was engrossed in the assassination of leftist opposition leader Chokri Belaid, few people were concerned about that day’s newspaper reports about the possibility of forming a government of technocrats to succeed Hamadi Jebali’s unstable government torn apart by party conflicts.

Some believed that Jebali’s proposal to form a government of technocrats was a maneuver to quell the popular anger after Belaid’s assassination. One day prior to Jebali’s suggestion, a daily published an article posted by the Prime Minister’s advisor Abou Yaareb Marzouki on his Facebook page entitled “Jebali’s Cabinet: Unpredictable Future.”

The article was exceptional by all standards, since President Moncef  Marzouki did not stick to the secrecy requirement imposed by his official position and spoke frankly about the divisions and political wrangling of the ruling Troika parties, namely Ennahda, Ettakatol and Congress for the Republic (CPR). He also addressed the division of Ennahda itself due to power rivalry between its leader Rashid Ghannouchi and Secretary-General Hamadi Jebali.

The tug of war within the government and also within Ennahda itself was a real conflict, while government activities were almost paralyzed.

Chokri Belaid’s assassination was the drop that made the bucket overflow and prompted Jebali to put forth his initiative, which stated that non-party members of the government should not be allowed to run for upcoming elections, in order to fully devote themselves to managing state institutions, in addition to achieving a political consensus that comprised all political parties.

However, Ennahda and CPR rejected that initiative since they considered it a bloodless coup against the electoral legitimacy under which they came to power. Some CPR ministers even accused their government’s leader of representing the counter-revolution.

Mustapha Ben Jaafar, Ettakatol party leader and head of the National Constituent Assembly, together with the opposition represented by the Republican and Call for Tunisia parties, supported Jebali’s initiative. The Popular Front, however, chose to distance itself from the ongoing conflict for formality reasons since it considered that its call for a dialogue with the Prime Minister was not met with proper courtesy.

Having managed to absorb popular anger and break the imposed political isolation after Belaid’s assassination, Ennahda proposed to form a government that combined both politicians as well as technocrats.

Hence, Ennahda once again showed an ability to overcome a challenging situation while its opponents demonstrated poor political maneuverability and disparity of opinions to face an emerging situation, thus wasting their valuable lobbying cards.

Ennahda trapped its secretary general Jebali into either implicitly accusing him of betrayal or offering to renew his leadership according to its program rather than the program he defiantly said he would unequivocally defend. Thus, in either situation, he was certain to lose credibility and end his leadership.

The prime minister’s initiative, however, did not succeed and he resigned in fulfillment of his promise to step down if his efforts failed. But, Jebali succeeded in winning the public opinion when he stressed in his resignation speech on the people’s great disappointment in his political elite, apologizing for any deficiency during his term.

Mission impossible

The new Prime Minister Ali Larayedh will face a formidable task, especially when his predecessor clearly stated his objection to engage once again in the formation of a non-successful government.

Indicators, such as the staggering economic situation (notwithstanding the rosy figures cited by former ministers), critical social conditions where poverty and crime expanded, tense political situation where  some political parties try to exploit the revolution to exclude their opponents and insecurity due to proliferation of arms among militias related to some ruling circles, add to the difficulty of Larayedh’s mission. So, will he succeed where his predecessor failed?

Jebali has explained that the next government should be a government for all Tunisians, ensuring its citizens’ freedom of activity and gathering, where the state takes responsibility to secure people’s freedom and perform its role solely not interfered by any other organization or committees.

All Tunisians realize the impossibility of this concept since key political parties exclude their opponents, defend the violent groups they consider the ‘conscience of the revolution’ and immunize their crimes against any accountability or liability.

Furthermore, Larayedh’s administration of the interior ministry has been widely criticized for gross violations against citizens, journalists and activists of both civil and political society. In addition, when Larayedh was in office, the U.S. Embassy experienced a terrorist attack whose complete details have not yet been disclosed, and the country witnessed the first political assassination after the revolution when Shoukri Belaid, one of the most prominent leaders of the opposition against Ennahda politics and agendas, was murdered.

Many observers question the validity of claims of Ennahda’s interference with the Interior Ministry and its formation of parallel organizations related to terrorist networks.

Based on the development of events, Hamadi Jebali may be the most prominent beneficiary since he gained public sympathy through his resignation that covered his government’s failures, turning him into a symbol of honesty, integrity and pure nationalism and whom Tunisians perceive as the savior.

Contrary to what some analysts have expected about the possibility of his defection, Jebali’s return to his party enables him to be in wait for his prediction about the failure of his successor to come true so that he can firmly return to power. However, a new equation could cause a split within Ennahda and eliminate its junior partners who have assumed decision-making positions by a unique historical coincidence. Meanwhile, it is expected that the country will slide into a wave of unrest for which it will pay dearly.