A professor of geology at Asyut University, in the north eastern Egyptian city of Asyut, is warning that ten percent of the country’s population is at risk from the effects of climate change.

A professor of geology at Asyut University, in the north eastern Egyptian city of Asyut, is warning that ten percent of the country’s population is at risk from the effects of climate change.

Professor Khaled Ouda, a Professor Emeritus of Stratigraphy and Palaeontology, conducted a variety of research while putting together the 2010 book, Atlas of Risks of Climate Change on the Egyptian Coasts and Defensive Policies. The atlas, which is most likely the first comprehensive study of the topography of 3,500 km of the Egyptian coast, took three years to produce – until recently there’s been a dearth of substantiated mapping of the area – and as the professor says, it’s the kind of thing that’s usually published by state agencies.

The Nile Delta – the area of lowlands around the mouth of the Nile and one of the biggest deltas in the world – is less than a metre above current sea levels. Even with conservative estimates of sea level rises, Ouda believes that between 4,000 and 5,000 square kilometres will be eventually covered by the sea. And the Nile Delta is one of the world’s most populated.

But Ouda’s findings were not all negative: he also discovered a reservoir of ground water in the desert and a number of arable oases.

The professor talked to Correspondents about what can be done to save the Nile Delta and explains why there is hope in Egypt’s huge, dry deserts.

Professor Ouda, what impact will climate change have on the Nile Delta?

The Delta has an area of 24,450 square kilometres– that’s around 2.5 percent of Egypt’s total area. Natural erosion of the coast, the effects of human consumption and the lack of silt deposit from the Nile River due to damming, means that the Delta will easily be affected by even the slightest rise in sea levels. International research indicates that the world’s sea levels will rise at least one meter this century. Which means that large parts of the Delta will be submerged.

Can you explain this further – what might happen?

There are four components to this. Firstly, we’ll see sea waters invading lake waters, then we’ll see lands simply covered by sea water as it leaks through surface soil and then we’ll also see sea water simply starting to cover the land. And finally we’ll also see the coastlines favoured by tourists swamped – that includes cities like Alexandria and Port Said.  All in all, we could see between 17 and 24 percent of the Nile Delta submerged or affected.

What effect does damming have?

The Nile river has deposited silt, mud and sand in the Nile Delta for thousands of years. And that silt has resulted in the sand dunes that now form a natural defence against the sea. But the Aswan High Dam [a huge damm, completed in 1970, that captures the Nile River in the world’s third largest reservoir, upon which many Egyptians are dependent] prevents the Nile from carrying those deposits down the river. This has seen an increase in the erosion of the coast.

You’ve come up with some solutions to this problem, including a revival of interest in the mildly controversial Qattara Depression Project.

A unique solution would be to use the Qattara Depression [a depression in the Libyan desert, lying below sea level and covering about 20,000 square miles] to collect seawater. The Depression is as big as Kuwait and it could hold about half of the extra water in the Mediterranean over the next century. That would limit any rise in sea levels and save Egypt’s Delta as well as help other Mediterranean countries. The water could also be used to generate hydro electricity.  

So why isn’t anybody doing this?  

There was no political will for it under the previous Egyptian government. And now we have instability and ongoing protests. But I really think somebody should take charge of these kinds of national projects so that all of Egypt can benefit.

And did you come up with any other solutions to the problem with the Nile Delta?

Returning the alluvia back to the Nile River may well be the best long term solution – discharging excess water [into Qattara] without protecting the Delta is useless. So a solution would be another channel behind Lake Nasser [the man-made lake created by the Aswan High Dam] so that around 75 percent of the river water, loaded with silt and alluvia, can be diverted to reach the Delta. The other 25 percent of water will still keep flowing into the dam. The project doesn’t require any pumps because of the geography of the area, it keeps Lake Nasser free of silt [which is accumulating there with worsening results] and it would help water surrounding arable lands.  

You have also made some interesting discoveries about the Western Desert.

In June 2011, we undertook a research expedition into the Great Sand Sea, to parts that nobody had mapped before. A party of six university professors, led by myself and Professor Ibrahim Nasr, head of Ministry of Agriculture’s Desert Research Centre, took thousands of pictures and shot lots of video. We found traces of two ancient rivers there, one flowing from Libya’s Kufra River and the other coming from Gilf Kebir [a sandstone plateau in remote south western Egypt].  When the Western Desert was green around 18 to 22 thousand years ago, water would have flowed in those rivers. The rivers are now dry – but what it does mean is that these areas may represent significant and strategic ground water reserves.

Could you please explain that? Are you saying there is untapped groundwater out in the desert?  

These discoveries prove that there are seven new oases possible in these areas – altogether about 3.75 million arable acres. Under each of them, at a depth of around 1,200 meters, there is Nubian sandstone, Egypt’s aquifer [meaning that it contains ground water]. And if it’s properly used, this large amount of potentially arable land could lead to an agricultural revolution in Egypt.