At sunset, as the ballot boxes of the General National Conference (GNC) elections were about to close last July, the Arab and international media began speculating about a crushing victory of the liberal National Forces Alliance (NFA), which included about 60 liberal parties led by former prime minister candidate, Dr. Mahmoud Jebril, over the Islamic Justice and Building Party (JBP), Libya’s Muslim Brotherhood.
At sunset, as the ballot boxes of the General National Conference (GNC) elections were about to close last July, the Arab and international media began speculating about a crushing victory of the liberal National Forces Alliance (NFA), which included about 60 liberal parties led by former prime minister candidate, Dr. Mahmoud Jebril, over the Islamic Justice and Building Party (JBP), Libya’s Muslim Brotherhood.
The final results confirmed the media’s theories; NFA won 39 out of 80 seats, while JBP came second with 17 seats and the National Front Party (NFP) came third with 3 seats only.
Being supported by the Islamic current against NFA, NFP, which is the oldest political formation in Libya and which made an assassination attempt on Gaddafi in 1984, GNC won the presidency through his candidate Dr. Mohamed el-Magariaf, who immediately resigned from NFP leadership.
The NFA failure to win the GNC presidency reduced, in turn, its chance at winning a clear majority that would enable him to be a major player in the emerging political life in Libya. Its position became even weaker after it lost the Prime Ministry to Mustafa Abushagur also supported by NFP, despite nominating its leader Dr. Mahmoud Jebril who stood alone against the Islamic current.
Runoff deal
The image of the ‘one current wins it all’ of the NFA was based on the seats taken by the political coalitions regardless of the 120 independent seats. This image however has soon evaporated after Dr. Jebril lost to an old member of NFP just by two votes in the runoff, although he got 86 votes to 55 in the first round which is a repetition of the GNC presidential elections scenario (runoff deal) when the 41 votes won by the Muslim Brotherhood candidate went to Dr. Abushagur who became the first Prime Minister in Libya to be elected by a democratically elected body.
Issam Al-Mawi, the NFA deputy leader said: “Considering voters’ tendencies which gave confidence to specific coalitions, it can be said that things have dramatically turned upside down; the majority lost power and the opposition got it”.
It is politically illogical, he says, and will strongly affect the general landscape in the near future. “On the other hand”, he explained, “those who have accepted the rules of the democratic process should accept its results. This is why once the results were out we immediately congratulated Dr. Abushagur. And we will never hesitate to support any patriotic step the next government takes to improve security and achieve stability.”
However, he said that NFA might play a major role in the future. “There will be change in performance according to the needs of the next stage. We have to use that experience in understanding the political landscape under the GNC dome. The political alignments have become clearer but NFA can still play a major and effective role in the future”, he insisted.
Mysterious affiliations
Observers believe that the situation in the GNC is a bit mysterious, especially that the political affiliations of most of the 120 seats assigned for independents are not known for sure. In the meanwhile, 35 GNC members announced forming a coalition in an attempt to create a balance between the political coalitions.
In an article posted into his Facebook page, political analyst, Mahmoud Shammam, alludes that this coalition of independents might be a new technique used by the Islamists to expand their base, confirming that it consists of Muslim independents and some representatives of Jabal al-Gharbi.
Shammam explains that NFA has a maximum of 80 seats: 39 from its list, 2 from the centrist current headed by Ali Tarhouni, former head of the oil and finance files in the former executive office, and four from other small bodies.
According to him, JBP has 35 seats: 17 from its list while the rest are independents belonging to it. He adds that there is also a Salafist coalition of 15 members. Accordingly, neither the affiliation of the remaining 35 seats nor the share of NFP – whose former leader, el-Magariaf stated after the GNC elections that he expected his party to take 12 seats: 3 from his party and 9 independents belonging to it or as a result of understandings with others he didn’t name – are known.
Political conflict
JBP compensated for its loss in the elections through forming alliances with independents and coalitions, which increased its seats to 40 and limited the dominance of its traditional opponent, NFA. However, that didn’t guarantee the Party any of the two presidencies (GNC or Prime Ministry).
Nizar Kawan, a JBP member, said: “We are all to blame, me, JBP and NFA. We have failed to agree on an independent patriotic figure who would get us out of the polarization crisis and the political tunnels logic.”
“Let’s face it! We have failed miserably in the elections but we should succeed in forming a national unity government,” he added. This requires holding discussions with NFA which Kawan considers “a major player and partner that can’t be discarded” and “it also requires communication, understanding and forming alliances with all the national forces for Libya.”
Two-presidency party
The presence of two competing coalitions was in the NFP interest with their only 3 seats.
Ibrahim Sahd, the NFP former secretary general, believes that winning the Prime Ministry was the result of precise planning. “It was the result of cooperation with more than one party especially in the runoff, not to mention the support of independents and small entities,” he explained.
Sahd declines that Dr. Abushagur is a member of NFP, confirming however that NFP supported his nomination. He also refuses considering the narrow victory of Dr. Abushagur by just two votes as dubious because “the elections were transparent with the presence of the members, a vote counting committee and representatives of members, who didn’t object to the results.”
Sahd believes that the uncertainty surrounding the political map of GNC comes from the fact that coalitions are formed through agreeing on policies and issues rather than on ideologies because there is no ideological link between coalitions save two. “Coalitions are formed when there is agreement on a given issue then they end when the issue in question ends. Therefore, coalitions are temporary and based on the issues being discussed”, he added.
Consensus government
“Regardless of who becomes the Prime Minister,” says political activist, Zahraa Lanki. “The challenge is to form a consensus government not a coalition one.”
“Ministries of Defense and Interior are the most important ones so we should try our best, regardless of our ideologies and affiliations, to choose competent ministers to save Libya from insecurity and chaos”, she added.
